According to most recent GUS figures, the registered unemployment rate in August was 10 percent. – The prognoses of the Ministry of Labour and Social Policy, indicating that in the summer months the rate would drop to single digits, were proven inaccurate, However, the condition of the Polish labour market remains good. In spite of a recent drop in investment expenses and lower indices of the situation in industry, job creation rate remains high – comments Łukasz Kozłowski, expert of Employers of Poland.
The registered unemployment rate is still decreasing relatively quickly – 1.7 percentage point year to year, despite the changing nature of the economic environment in which Polish companies operate. In the last two quarters the contribution of individual and public consumption, as well as of the expenses on fixed assets to GDP growth. The decrease in investment appears to have no impact on job creation dynamics. This is a positive signal, though one has to keep in mind that such a situation cannot continue forever. If unfavourable tendencies in shaping the capital expenses of economic entities do not change in the near future, we have to ready for the unemployment decrease rate to drop.
Although the ministry’s prognosis did not prove true, a single-digit registered unemployment rate is still very likely. It should be achieved as early as September and maintained in October. However, in the next months the unemployment rate will most likely rise – mostly due to seasonal works coming to an end. The draft of the budget estimates the expected registered unemployment rate to be at 10.5 percent. This is quite a cautious prognosis, as in reality it is likely that this index will be only slightly higher than 10 percent.
Łukasz Kozłowski, economic expert of Employers of Poland