The index showing the assessment of the current situation is growing at a record rate. The main cause of this is mostly the normalization of the conditions in bigger companies after restrictions in the supply of electricity in August, rather than a sudden improvement of the economic climate – such are the showings of the Entrepreneurs’ Optimism Index, calculated on the basis of a survey among members of Employers of Poland.
In September, the Entrepreneurs’ Optimism Index reached a value of 115.2 points in terms of the assessment of current business situation, compared to 108.9 points in August. However, the prognosis for the next six months decreased from 126.3 points to 122.9 points.
Main figures of the Entrepreneurs’ Optimism Index – September 2015
In comparison to August, more companies assess that their situation has improved rather than worsened. It is important to keep in mind that in this the reference point is a time when Polish economy suffered due to restricted access to electricity. This means that a return to a normal state of affairs implies a more optimistic assessment. Furthermore, it should come as no surprise that industry was the sector with the most significant contribution to the general improvement in the improvement of the index.
As a result, the assessment of the current business situation increased by as much as 6.3 points, which is a record increases, as well as the highest-ever value of the index in its 19-month history. Given that such a good showing – like the poor result in August – is for the most part a consequence of extraordinary circumstances, it is unlikely that it will be maintained in the coming months.
Prognoses regarding the future business situation continue to worsen. Industry is the most pessimistic sector, when it comes to the expectations for the next six months. This appears to confirm the temporary nature of the radical improvement in indices related to the current situation. The indications of companies from the mining industry are particularly bad, mostly due to drops in prices of raw materials on global markets.
However, optimism is increasing among transport companies and providers of business services. Some signs of improvement in the construction sector are also evident. In retail sales and other services, neutral assessments are prevalent. Medium-sized companies are in the best condition, while large ones most often fear that their business condition will deteriorate.
General assessment of the current business situation Assessment of the business situation in the next six months