Tentative estimations made by the Ministry of Labour and Social Policy show that in September, the registered employment rate fell to 9.9 percent. – The long-awaited moment where the unemployment rate is in single digits is finally here. Such a low rate of people registered as looking for a job has been a very rare occurrence in the last 20 years – comments Łukasz Kozłowski, expert of Employers of Poland.
The prognosis according to which the fall to a level below 10 percent was expected to occur in the holiday season has come to fruition with a delay. In recent years, the value of this index has rarely been this good – the last time it happened was throughout eight months in 2008 and earlier for seven months in 1998.
However, in contrast to the situation seven years ago, the upturn on the labour market is not strong enough to cause – as was the case back then – a rapid growth in wages and hard competition among employers for employees. This seems to be the effect of a lowering of the natural level of unemployment in Poland which is a result of employee migration, the gradual entry of the structurally unemployed into the pension age bracket and more effective measures combatting fictitious unemployment.
Regrettably, the single-digit unemployment rate will most likely not hold out for very long. If the economic climate is favourable, October may see a slight drop in this regard. However, starting in November, unemployment will increase due to the conclusion of seasonal works. By the end of the year, the registered unemployment rate will most likely have risen to a level a bit above 10 percent.
Łukasz Kozłowski, economic expert of Employers of Poland