For the first time in the history of the index, the index reflecting the assessment of the current business situation has assumed a higher value than the index reflecting the prognoses for the business situation in the next six months – such are the showings of the Entrepreneurs’ Optimism Index, elaborated on the base of a survey conducted among members of Employers of Poland.
In November 2015, the index reached a value of 117.1 point in terms of the assessment of the current situation, compared to 115.2 points in September. However, the prognoses are less optimistic – it fell from 122.9 points last months to 115.7 points in November.
The main indications of the Entrepreneurs’ Optimism Index – figures for October 2015
Contrary to prior estimations, the rapid growth of the former index last month, did not prove to be short-term and mostly related to a low base of comparison in August. Relatively many entrepreneurs still feel that their situation is improving month to month.
A completely different picture emerges from the prognoses for the next six months, More and more entities expect unfavourable tendencies in the future. Long-term, this may have a negative impact on private investment dynamics and – in turn – job creation dynamics.
Yet again, the indices go in opposite directions. However, we can expect that situation not to last for very long. In theory, increasingly worse business expectations should, in time, have a negative impact on the assessment of the current situation.
Small companies are doing relatively well in the market, which continues to be a positive signal given that in previous surveys this was usually the least optimistic group with regards to the assessment of the current situation, The situation of medium and large companies is even better. However, they are also more likely to express concern about the future than smaller entities.
The most dynamic growth was registered in the IT industry. The construction sector is also starting to emerge from a downturn. Despite the increasing likelihood of the introduction of unfavourable legislation, the financial sector also remains optimistic. Negative prognoses dominate in the industry and transport sectors.
Assessment of the current business situation Assessment of the business situation in the next six months