The average monthly wage in companies in October increased by 3.3 percent year to year – show most recent GUS data. – Although the situation on the labour market is systematically improving, which manifests itself chiefly in a rapid decrease in unemployment and a moderate wage growth – even taking the impact of falling prices into account. This is the case because in most cases entrepreneurs still do not experience serious difficulties in job supplies. This also means that there is much space to cut the unemployment rate further – comments Łukasz Kozłowski, expert of Employers of Poland.
Annual nominal wage dynamics maintains a relatively stable value with a slight tendency to drop. The situation of employees is positively impacted by deflation which, however, is expected to gradually peter out in the future. The lack of wage growth pressure with an unemployment rate of 9.6 percent shows that the natural unemployment level in Poland in the last two years has dropped. However, at some point further unemployment decrease will have to lead to a stronger impulse for wage growth. This may happen in 2016 – provided the GDP dynamics remain at least at the current level.
Increased employment in companies is consistent with other data on the dynamics of labour market processes – in mid-year, a moderate restriction of unemployment rate decrease occurred, but recent months have brought an improvement in this regard. There are no grounds to expect a downturn on the labour market in the coming months, though a strong impact of seasonal factors between November and February will certainly contribute to higher unemployment.
Łukasz Kozłowski, economic expert of Employers of Poland