New GUS figures indicate that the registered unemployment rate in October was 9.6 percent. – Despite a still relatively moderate economic growth and uncertain global conditions, the upturn on the Polish labour market does not cease. The unemployment rate is the lowest since December 2008 and is systematically closing in on pre-crisis levels. However, the wage growth rate is still substantially lower than 7 years ago. We will have to wait for the so-called “employee market” – comments Łukasz Kozłowski, expert of Employers of Poland.
In October 2015, there were over 245 000 fewer unemployed than a year ago. This means that the registered unemployment rate fell by 1.7 percentage points. Thus, rate of unemployment decrease is slowing down slightly. At the same time, it is still hugely positive, which – given the stable wage dynamics – testifies to the fact that work resources are still largely unused. This suggests that provided there are no serious negative macroeconomic shocks, this rate may be maintained next year as well.
Sadly, October may prove to be the last month this year to see a decrease in unemployment. One can expect that in November the unemployment rate may be ca. 9.7 percent and 9.9 percent at the end of the year. The start of next year will be even tougher. In January and February, it may reach a level close to 10.5 percent. The situation should improve starting in March 2016.
Łukasz Kozłowski, economic expert of Employers of Poland