In November, the value of sold industrial production increased by 7.8 percent year to year, while retail sails expressed in fixed prices grew by 5.7 percent year to year – show recent GUS figures – This is a very good showing, but not a reason for euphoria. One has to keep in mind that it was caused to a large extent by the statistical base effect. The upturn could be justifiable called a significant one, only when and if today’s strong figures find a confirmation in subsequent macroeconomic measurements – comments expert of Employers of Poland Łukasz Kozłowski.
One of the most important factors in improved retail sales and industrial production figures compared to October is the low statistical base from next year. It is worth reminding that in 2014, production grew only 0.3 percent year to year, while dropping 7.5 percent month to month, while retail sales grew by 1.4 percent year to year, but dropped by 7.8 percent month to month. The cause of such a low basis for comparison is the lower number of working days last year – this October we worked for 20 days, compared to 18 last year, while it was only possible to take a day off as a compensation for a holiday falling on Saturday.
However, the emerging picture is clearly positive, as showings in both regards far exceed expectations. These figures can plausibly signal the beginning of an upturn in industry – which has recently slowed down somewhat – as well as indicate that Polish households are more willing to spend on consumption.
Although, the real wage growth rate is fastest in ca. 7 years, thus far sales dynamics were weaker than at the time of the 2010-2011 upturn, when the condition of the labour market was much worse – even after eliminating the impact of deflation. Maybe Polish consumers are feeling more sure and are therefore more likely to spend. If that were the case in a short-term perspective, it would have a positive impact on further GDP growth, as it has not picked up the pace in some time due to relatively weak individual consumption dynamics.
Łukasz Kozłowski, economic expert of Employers of Poland