As shown by most recent GUS figures, the registered unemployment rate at the end of last year was 9.8 percent. – For the first time in seven years, we ended the year with a single-digit unemployment rate. This year should be a time of not only relatively low unemployment, but of quicker nominal wage growth as well. Next months may be a bit more difficult due to the impact of seasonal factors, but come the summer the situation should improve again – comments Łukasz Kozłowski, expert of Employers of Poland.
From the perspective of the Polish labour market, 2015 can surely be considered a good year. Despite moderate economic growth, employment in companies grew very dynamically which effected a quick decrease of the unemployment rate. It is worth reminding, that the draft of the 2015 budget includes the prognosis that the unemployment rate at the end of that year would be 11.8 percent. The actual rate turned out to be better than that by as much as 2 percent.
We have to be prepared for a significant increase of unemployment to a level of 10.3-10.4 percent in January. However, it will result mostly form the influence of seasonal factors rather than a downturn. One can also expect 2016 to be a year of quicker wage growth, due to a further drop in the number of people looking for work coupled with the increased demands for employees. The rate at which unemployment will decrease may lower in subsequent months, as it will be approaching its natural level, as well as in consequence of lower investment dynamics which we have observed for some time now.
Łukasz Kozłowski, economic expert of Employers of Poland