Expectations of the future are reaching new all-time lows. At the same time, small companies are doing quite well, and the index showing the assessment of the current business situation is still above 100 points – such are the showings of the Entrepreneurs’ Optimism Index, elaborated on the basis of surveys conducted among members of Employers of Poland.
In February 2016, the Entrepreneurs’ Optimism Index assumed the value of 102.8 points in terms of the assessment of the current business situation compared to 107.8 points in January. The prognosis of the business situation in the next 6 months has also deteriorated – it fell from 97.4 points last month to 93.8 points.
Main indications of the Entrepreneurs’ Optimism Index – figures for February 2016
February brought a continuation of tendencies observed in recent months. Assessments of both the current and the future situation in business are increasingly negative, although the rate at which the indices fall is lower than in January. It should be emphasized that the index of the assessment of the companies’ business situation compared to the month before maintains a value above 100 points, which is still a moderately optimistic showing. Expectations of the business climate in the next 6 months are far less positive. This sub-index is at its lowest ever – that is, since March 2014. Compared to previous months, the situation in the construction sector deteriorated significantly. The financial sector recorded neither an improvement nor more problems compared to the month before, but is very pessimistic when it comes to prognoses for the future. Similarly to the months before, this is related to increasing burdens resulting from the new tax, as well as the obligation to contribute to the Bank Guarantee Fund in order to pay the deposits of clients of recently bankrupt institutions. The prospect of introducing a sector tax surely did not translate to the assessment of the business climate among companies providing goods and services in retail, who are among the most prosperous entities. This may be partially caused by a the broad scope of this group, which includes many entities not subject to new fiscal burdens. Moreover, internal consumption demand remains relatively strong. Industry and mining indicate a significantly worse business condition, although they expect their economic results to stabilize long-term.
Unexpectedly, the most positive assessments in both respects were exhibited by small companies, while negative and neutral views were more common among bigger entities. This may be explained by the fact that new obligations apply mostly to big companies, while smaller ones may expect a number of instruments facilitating their functioning, such as lower CIT rates.
General assessment of the business situation General assessment of the business situation in the next six months