Current estimations of the Ministry of Family, Labour and Social Policy indicate that in February, the registered unemployment rate maintained an unchanged value of 10.3 percent compared to January. Although the aforementioned rate should start to drop with the beginning of spring, the pace of the decrease could be slower than last year. – The dynamics of changes on the Polish labour market are still positive, but the slower rate of the increase in expenses on fixed assets increases the risk that the drop in unemployment slows down – says Łukasz Kozłowski, expert of Employers of Poland.
Polish economy grows quite quickly – in the last quarter, the GDP growth rate was 3.9 percent. However, the structure of the factors contributing to it has changes significantly. On the one hand, the weakness of the złoty helps ensure the positive impact of surpluses in foreign trade, on the other, the expenses on fixed assets are growing more slowly.
This does not augur well for the Polish labour market, as the changes in expenses for the purchase or production of fixed assets are among the better indicators of tendencies in unemployment. If companies invest less, there will likely be less new jobs too. The structure of expenses is also an indicator of expectations for the future – they will take investment risks if they do not expect a sufficiently good economic climate and environment.
If investment dynamics maintains their current level or drop, we will have to be prepared that the unemployment decrease in 2016 will not be a significant as last year.
Łukasz Kozłowski, economic expert of Employers of Poland