As shown by recent estimations of the Ministry of Family, Labour and Social Policy, the registered unemployment rate recorded in April was 9.6 percent. – After the winter downturn, the Polish labour market is coming back to life. Now, the registered unemployment rate is back to the level of last October and we may expect it to drop quickly in the coming months, though less rapidly than last year. As the rate lowers, we will be inching ever closer to an employees’ market – comments Łukasz Kozłowski, expert of Employers of Poland.
April brought a continuation of positive labour market trends. The increase in unemployment recorded in winter was caused by the negative impact of seasonal factors, but has now been fully compensated. In the coming months, the rate of unemployment will still be lower than the figures for 2015.
However, the year-to-year unemployment rate does not decrease as quickly as it did a few months ago. Given that this index is already close to its natural level, restricting unemployment any further will be increasingly difficult. The recent downturn in investments is also a hindrance to job creation.
Thanks to seasonal factors, we are in for two further months of unemployment decrease. In June, the unregistered unemployment rate may fall below 9 percent. Assuming that there will be no major turbulences in the surroundings of Polish economy, we can expect it to drop to ca. 8.5 percent.
Łukasz Kozłowski, economic expert of Employers of Poland