In May, for the first time in almost a year, the index indicating companies expectations of future economic climate recorded aa increase. This may signal the beginning of the reversal of negative trends prevalent in recent months – such are the showings of the Entrepreneurs’ Optimism Index, based on a survey conducted among members of Employers of Poland.
In May, the Index assumed the value of 98.3 points with regards to the assessment of the current business situation, compared to 99.5 points in April. However, the prognoses for the next 6 months are more optimistic, with the relevant index rising from 92.8 points last months to 97.6 points.
Main indications of the Entrepreneurs’ Optimism Index – figures for May 2016
For the first time in nearly half a year, both main indices are not decreasing at the same time. It is also the first increase of the subindex related to the assessment of the future in 11 months, which also reached the highest value since December 2015. Nevertheless, both with regards to the current and future situation the values are below 100 points, indicating a worsening of the situation in business. In spite of this, more companies plan to increase investment expenses than plan to cut them.
Causes indicated by respondents include the decreasing number of orders, lack of clearly defined priorities with regards to spending on public investments, as well as the unstable and unpredictable public policy towards public companies. Respondents also indicate that the unified control file (JPK) for state administration generates considerable costs and organizational problems for entrepreneurs, exacerbating the already heavy burdens related to mandatory reporting.
Moods are most pessimistic in construction, while the transport industry is experiencing a relatively good climate. Neutral views dominate in financial and business services, which is quite a positive, given the recent pessimism caused by increased fiscal burdens. Industry and trade indicate a deteriorating current business condition, but at the same time both groups are optimistic when it comes to future developments.
Assessment of the current business situation Assessment of the business situation in the next 6 months