Recent GUS figures show that the prices of consumer goods and services in May were 0.9 percent lower than the year before. – Deflation has proven to be more shallow then estimated earlier. At the end of the day, the price decrease dynamic was closer to initial prognoses and market expectations. More expensive fuels, weak złoty, tightening labour market and consumption demand stimulated by the 500+ program should create inflation within a few months, although one should not forget that deflation has long shown a tendency to surprise with its scope – comments Łukasz Kozłowski, expert of Employers of Poland.
Year to year deflation is stimulated mostly by falling prices of fuel and transport. At the same time food, accommodation and gastronomic services – among others – got moderately more expensive. Therefore, one of the main initial driving forces of deflation in our country, decreasing food prices, is currently having a reverse impact. On the other hand, deflation has spread to other base categories of goods and services, which were not under its influence earlier.
However, annual figures show history first and foremost – oil and fuel have gotten more expensive over the last 4 months and the moment when the statistical base effect turns against deflation is ever closer. Compared to April, gas prices were 4.2 percent higher and are the main factor responsible for the positive month to month value of the CPI index. A further drop in prices is also obstructed by a weak złoty and the relatively low individual household consumption dynamics, while the latter tendency will also be further strengthened by the payment of child care benefits.
Łukasz Kozłowski, economic expert of Employers of Poland