The British have decided to leave the EU, on Friday nothing will have changed yet. Conclusions of the seminar organized by Employers of Poland on the eve of the referendum clearly show that the process will not be quick and the changes it brings about will not come as a surprise.
Immediate consequences will surely lead to oscillating exchange rates, but this will likely be the only effect we feel. – Brexit may lead to a short-term weakening of our currency, but it is unlikely to have an impact on inflation or lead to a decrease in GDP – assessed Jarosław Jakubik form the Economic Institute of the National Bank of Poland. In his opinion, there will be no revolution in trade relations, because Great Britain is too economically dependent on the EU to radically break from it. – Should an exit become reality, new economic agreements will replace the ones that are in place today – Jakubik emphasized.
The NBP states that half of both import and export of Great Britain is connected to the EU. Only 12 percent of the country’s trade exchange is not subject to EU regulations. Most of EU trade (ca.80-90 percent) is based on agreements in which Great Britain is a party, agreements which will not be revoked if it leaves the EU. – One cannot expect Great Britain to break all agreements and put trade at a standstill altogether – said Jakubik.
Poles on the Isles can now take a deep breath and look to the future with moderate optimism. According to Piotr Soroczyński, chief economist of the Export Credit Insurance Corporation (KUKE), many Britons cannot or do not want to work in the conditions provided by employers. Therefore, British entrepreneurs will lobby for immigrants, including Poles, to still be allowed to work in Britain. – Of the 700 000 Poles in Great Britain, as many as 80 percent are working, so Britain should thoroughly consider the possible negative impact of restricting their access to the labour market – Soroczyński pointed out. However, if Poles are forced to leave, some may return to Poland and use the expertise acquired abroad to establish their own companies. Further emigration to Scandinavia is also a possibility.
A survey conducted by TNS in other EU countries brought interesting results – in some states, a considerable portion of the population would want a referendum on leaving the Union. Netherlands is in the first spot – 38 percent of respondents would want such a vote, 28 percent would not, while 34 percent remain undecided. In Denmark, such a referendum is supported by 32 percent of respondents, but 53 percent declare that they oppose the idea. TNS has also asked how EU citizens see its functioning without Great Britain. – Most Poles, Finns and Danes are of the opinion that the UE would be worse off – summarized the results Piotr Kwiatkowski, Chairman of TNS Polska. However, in Luxembourg, homeland of Jean Claude Juncker, Chairman of the European Commission, as many as 27 percent believe that it would work better, while 28 percent declare that it would be a change to the detriment of the Union. Moods are similar in France, where 14 percent of respondents share the view that EU without Britain would function better, 27 percent support the opposite view, 34 percent do not expect any changes and 25 percent responded that they did not know.