As shown by most recent assessments of the Ministry of Family. Labour and Social Policy, the registered unemployment rate in June was 8.8 percent. – The rate of people registered as looking for a job is nearing a record low. Next month, it will likely prove to be lower than at the height of the economic upturn of 2007-2008. However, further decrease in unemployment will be harder to achieve. Even maintaining its current level should substantially increase both wages and inflation – says expert of Employers of Poland Łukasz Kozłowski.
This good showing is caused mainly by the good condition of Polish economy and the restricted scope of fictional unemployment. This is indicated a.o. by the following discrepancy – in May, when BAEL unemployment dropped by 1.2 percentage points year to year, the registered unemployment rate was as much as 1.6 percentage points lower than in the analogous period next year.
Considering that according to economic activity surveys conducted the month before, the unemployment rate was 6.2, one can conclude that unemployment in Poland is nearing its natural level. This means that maintaining unemployment decrease dynamics will be increasingly difficult, and that wage and inflation pressure will intensify. Downturn in investment and the resulting decrease in job creation will also be contributing factors.
Łukasz Kozłowski, economic expert of Employers of Poland