As indicated by most recent GUS figures, in July average wages in companies increased by 4.8 percent year to year, while employment in the same increased by 3.2 percent. – Despite disappointing economic growth dynamics, very positive tendencies are still in force on the Polish labour market. Long-term, systematic increase in employment means that the lack of workforce is more and more acutely felt by entrepreneurs. Naturally, this strengthens the employees’ bargaining position and influences dynamic wage growth – comments Łukasz Kozłowski, expert of Employers of Poland.
In a real perspective, wage growth dynamics are gradually approaching levels recorded in 2007-08 and the situation on the labour market bears increasing resemblance to the so-called “employers’ market”. There are many indications that the current level of unemployment is low enough as to be a driving force for increased wages and inflation. Given this situation, the extinguishing of deflation tendencies by the end of the year appears increasingly likely. The gradually intensifying inflation spiral should contribute to a further increase in nominal wage growth rate, but for the same reason real wage growth dynamics will probably be much less impressive.
A continuation of the current positive tendencies depends first and foremost on the future condition of Polish economy. The noticeable downturn in investments which has been going on for about a year is a particular cause for concern in this context. Reversing this tendency would help maintain unemployment decrease and, in turn, further increase in wage growth.
Łukasz Kozłowski, economic expert of Employers of Poland