– This will be a difficult budget, because the full cost of fulfilling election promises will have to be taken into consideration. These include a.o. the Family 500+ program. Meanwhile, extraordinary sources of income, such as the NBP dividend and the LTE auction, which have helped the budget so much this year, will no longer be available. Therefore, a lot will depend on the effects of the efforts to improve the tax collection rate undertaken by the Ministry – expert of Employers of Poland Łukasz Kozłowski comments on the draft of the budget passed on August 25th.
The draft estimates budget income at 324.1 bln PLN and spending at 383.4 bln PLN, meaning that the deficit would be 59.3 bln PLN. These estimations were based on the assumption that real GDP growth will be 3.6 percent, and the average annual inflation rate of 1.3 percent. – It is too early for a definitive and full assessment of next year’s budget: its full content will have to be disclosed first. However, one can already say that this will be a difficult budget – explains expert of Employers of Poland.
One has to recognize that the economic growth rate for next has been lowered compared to the budget guidelines from June, dropping from 3.9 percent to 3.6 percent. This is surely the result of a weak first half of the year, which restricts the chance of achieving a high GDP dynamic in 2017. Slower growth means that balancing on the edge of excessive deficit will be even harder than initially thought.
Łukasz Kozłowski, economic expert of Employers of Poland