Most recent GUS figures confirm earlier estimations: in the second quarter GDP increased by 3.1 percent year to year. – Although earlier figures were not negatively corrected, these figures are disappointing. They show very unsettling changes in the structure of GDP growth. The downturn in investments is deepening and despite expansive fiscal policy there is no evidence of an upturn in private consumption. Therefore, the growth rate of just above 3 percent is saved only by the bounceback in net export and increased reserves. However, long-term growth cannot be based on such unsure foundations – says Łukasz Kozłowski, expert of Employers of Poland.
In light of this, GDP growth perspectives are not particularly positive. Increased public investments may help improve expenses on fixed assets, but it is increasingly unlikely that the second half of the year would be strong enough to render obsolete the revision of earlier estimations for 2016.
Łukasz Kozłowski, economic expert of Employers of Poland