- It is not a surprise that the European Commission improved the growth forecast for Polish economy from 1.1 % to 1.3% in 2013 and from 2.2 to 2.5 % next year – says expert of the Employers of Poland Łukasz Kozłowski.
He reminds that positive signals of an unexpectedly quick recovery of the Polish economy have been visible since the end of the second quarter of this year. - The strength of the upturn is confirmed among others by the value of the PMI index of our industrial sector in October, published on Monday. Even at a time when the West has been through a few weeks of hopefully temporary growth stagnation, Poland is still improving its results. The upturn came later than most economists predicted, but when it did, it proved to be stronger than expected – comments expert of the Employers of Poland Łukasz Kozłowski.
In his opinion, the governments has some reasons to be satisfied. - At the moment of their publication, macroeconomic guidelines for the budget draft for next year were criticized as overly optimistic. Now, a lot points to the governments forecasts being correct for the most part, even if the assumed composition of GDP growth can be seen as dubious – says the expert. An improved growth forecast for the coming years is accompanied by an alarming prognosis regarding the state of Polish public finances. – Approving a budget for 2013 based on unrealistic assumptions has caused an increased deficit in the government and self-government sector, 4.8 % GDP compare to 3.9 % GDP in 2012. Next year, as a result of changes in OFE, we will have a surplus of 4.6% GDP, but this one-off occurrence will not solve our problems with public finances – claims Kozłowski. Despite the redemption of treasury bonds owned by the private capital sector of the pension system, in 2015 public debt calculated according to EU methodology will amount to 52.5 % of GDP, which means that it will remain at a dangerously high level.
- Other attempts to economize undertaken by the Polish government do not impress the European Commission either. In its view, withdrawing the excessive deficit procedure with regards to Poland will not be possible even in 2015, despite minister Rostowski’s promises from two years ago, that by that time the budget will be fully balanced – reminds Kozłowski.
The article is also available in Polish at http://www.pracodawcyrp.pl/stanowiska/art,5665,polska-gospodarka-odradza-sie-ale-sytuacja-budzetowa-staje-sie-alarmujaca.html