GDP rose by 1.9 percent in Q3 year-to-year improving on the previous quarter’s 0.8 percent. According to Łukasz Kozłowski – expert of the Employers of Poland – this confirms earlier signs that Polish economy is picking up speed.
Kozłowski points out that all the relevant macroeconomic indicators have been improving since July. Composition of GDP in Q3 has not been published yet but we can deduce that such a swift growth in Q3 was caused by strong export performace – Poland’s export surplus hit record high in September – coupled with consumer spending and investment. He added that this trend is likely to continue in the next quarters. It is, however, only a preliminary estimate by Central Statistical Office. Nevertheless, experience shows that preliminary estimates usually differ from the final result by approx. 0.0–0.1 percentage point.
Acoording to our expert GDP growth rate in Q4 is going to be about 2.5 percent on Q4 2012 figure. This will mean a GDP growth rate of about 1.4 per cent in 2013 - a result that is slightly higher than European Commission’s forecast for Polish economy from the fall (1.3 percent) and a bit lower than macroeconomic assumptions of the budget (1.5 percent).
Kozłowski notes that we have recently observed some unsettling signs of a temporary slowdown in economic recovery of West-European countries. Polish economy has proved surprisingly resilient to external factors as they have not deteriorated Polish economic situation in any considerable way. Although the figures published on Thursday are not decisive, there are more and more signs that Polish economy will undergo a period of quite a dynamic growth like in 2010–2011 and not a timid recovery as many economists have feared.
He says that although the job market reacts to economic growth with a slight delay we can already see some improvement. Figures released by the Ministry of Labour show that for the first time in five years the unemployment rate dropped in October. Seasonal factors will, however, lead to another increase in unemployement. We can expect a more significant upturn next year.
The article is also available in Polish at http://www.pracodawcyrp.pl/stanowiska/art,5670,polska-gospodarka-przyspiesza-szybciej-niz-oczekiwano.html