Ministry of Labour and Social Policy announced that the number of people without a job decreased in February for the first time in six years - by 3.7 thousand. The registered unemployment rate still stands at 14 percent . – Bearing in mind the potential negative impact of seasonal factors on the situation on the labour market, it is undoubtedly very good news - says the expert Employers of Poland Łukasz Kozłowski.
This relatively rapid rate of improvement is, however, quite surprising. Admittedly, there were some reasons to expect that (such as an increase in the employment sub-index within the PMI for Polish industry to record levels), but despite this financial forecasts were relatively cautious. The central path of the projection in the National Bank’s report on inflation indicates that GDP will grow by 3.6 percent this year. Such economic growth, though still not quite satisfactory, would offer hope for noticeable improvement in the labour market.
However, it can be negatively affected not only by an unexpected deterioration in the economic situation of the country but also by adverse changes in legislation, and in particular those relating to imposing social security premiums on civil law agreements, the consequence of which would be an increase in the non-wage labour costs. Meanwhile, however, one can expect a further decline in unemployment, which should drop to a level of approx. 13.8 percent in March.
Łukasz Kozłowski, expert of Employers of Poland