In the first quarter of 2014, GDP year to year increased by 3.3 percent. The median of prognoses was 3.1 percent – Yet again, Polish economy surprises very positively – expert of Employers of Poland Łukasz Kozłowski comments the most recent GUS figures.
The situation is even more impressive when we look at seasonally adjusted figures, as they suggest a very significant increase in economic growth dynamics in our country. In the first quarter of this year, GDP increased by 3.5 percent compared to the same period last year, while in the fourth quarter of 2013, the growth rate was 2.5 percent. Thus, it is the biggest improvement to date in this cycle of economic revival – in the previous two quarters the annual seasonally adjusted GDP growth dynamics improved 0.6 percent in relation to the previous term. In quarterly terms GDP is growing the fastest in nearly three years.
The increasing consumption demand and better perspectives for the future cause companies to start new investment projects. Moods in business are notably improving and uncertainty is much smaller than a year ago. Entrepreneurs have believe that the second wave of global crisis is not coming and the situation in the eurozone will gradually improve.
Export was the pillar of Polish economy in a time of deep stagnation. As GDP growth dynamic increases, the positive impact of its surplus over changing import values will slowly decrease. However, one cannot help noticing that the Polish export is doing better and better on demanding foreign markets. Consequently, Poland’s structural trade and payment deficit level is moving closer to zero.
Economic growth will also be positively influence by changes in the state of supplies. Companies have survived stagnation by emptying their storage facilities. Now is the time for to restock with materials, intermediate and final products, contributing further to GDP growth.
Economic revival in Poland is picking up the pace. Improvement is visible in most areas, including the labor market.
Łukasz Kozłowski, expert of Employers of Poland