The European Central Bank has decided to lower the deposit rate to a negative level of – 0.1 percent. Meanwhile EBC’s main re-financing rate has been cut by 10 base points – to as little as 0.15 percent. – This is most likely good news for Polish government. The decision made by European financial authorities could lead to a decrease in the cost of our public debt – assesses Łukasz Kozłowski, expert of Employers of Poland.
The primary cause of this decision is the fear of deflation in the eurozone. Even though we are still 0.5 percent away from this significant barrier, EBC wants to act quickly and stop disinflation processes before they gather pace.
What does the introduction of a negative deposit rate mean? Banks will not only receive interest for depositing their money at the EBC – they will also have to pay 0.1 percent of the deposited assets calculated per year. This is intended to discourage them from excessively cautious location of assets at the EBC and contribute to an increase cash flow to the European economy through increased credit accessibility for entrepreneurs and households. Stimulated investments and consumption, together with an increased monetary base could cause higher inflation.
The EBC’s decision could also be good news for Polish economy. Already in 2012, when a zero deposit rate was introduced, we saw a rapid increase in demand for Polish treasury bonds and, as a consequence a drop in their profitability. The reaction could be similar this time, as financial institutions looking for alternative, but safe and moderately profitable capital deposits are increasingly interested in Polish debt securities. This could lead to an improved budget situation as the cost of public debt would drop.
Łukasz Kozłowski, expert of Employers of Poland