– There are indications that the coming quarters could be even better – expert of Employers of Poland Łukasz Kozłowski comments the most recent GUS figures on GDP dynamics for the third quarter.
Contrary to most analysts’ expectations, the third quarter of this year did not bring a downturn in GDP dynamics – it remained, having taken seasonal fluctuations into account, at a level of 3.4 percent year to year.
As the figures Publisher by GUS are preliminary, we still cannot know for sure what factors prevent a further slowdown of Polish economy. One can expect that the contribution of individual consumption was more significant and that net export had a negative impact on GDP dynamics.
The unfavourable growth rate was influence mainly by problems in the eurozone and the conflict in the East has surely not been without influence either. Key indicator of the situation in Polish industry, including the value of sold products and PMI, have also dropped.
In spite of these negative factors Polish economy remains surprisingly strong. The situation on the domestic labour market is rapidly improving – the annual unemployment rate decrease is constantly accelerating. Together with deflation and a relatively stable nominal wage increase, this means that real household income grow is the quickest in the last few years. It appears that stable internal demand has made our economy less likely to be negatively influence by external turbulences.
There are indications that the coming quarters could be even better. The condition of the American economy is not bad, which should at some point translate to the situation in Europe and Poland. The process of energy materials in the world have dropped significantly in the last couple of months, which has a positive impact on demand.
Łukasz Kozłowski, expert of Employers of Poland