- Poland's economy is still in the recovery phase, which was, however, weakened mainly due to external factors - stagnation in the euro zone and the conflict in the East - Employers of Poland expert, Łukasz Kozłowski comments on the latest CSO (Central Statistical Office) estimates of GDP growth in the third quarter of 2014.
It should be noted, however, that falling oil prices allow for a bit more optimistic assessment of the prospects for future economic growth. Cheaper energy has a positive effect on the supply side, while demand is stimulated by an increase in the purchasing power of households caused by deflation coupled with an improvement in the labour market.
Analyzing the impact of various factors on the change in GDP in the last quarter, we can observe a moderate acceleration of growth in private consumption. This does not reflect the full growth of real incomes of the population but it seems that in the next quarter propensity to consume may be higher.
Public consumption sustains domestic demand, and for half a year its contribution has been at the highest level in several years. Considering the need for further consolidation of public finances, we can expect a weakening of this component of GDP growth in the near future.
Expenditure on fixed assets is slowly becoming one of the most important factors of economic growth in Poland. The contribution of investment increased once again, which can also explained a surprisingly fast pace of job creation. Nevertheless, the impact of accumulation on GDP growth decreased as the contribution from changes in inventories was lower by 1 percentage point. Negative expectations of this growth factor formed the basis of the pessimistic forecasts of GDP for Q3. Fortunately, it turned out that this decline was largely offset by improvement in other areas.
Łukasz Kozlowski, expert of the Employers of Poland