The current turnover deficit for October, as presented by the National Bank of Poland, was higher than most analysts prognosed – it reached the level of -435 mln euro. The goods turnover balance remained positive, despite the fact that export was weaker than expected and import significantly stronger. – The figures are a continuation of tendencies that have been visible for the last few quarters – comments expert of Employers of Poland Łukasz Kozłowski.
In 2013, net export was the main impulse for growth and prevented recession. However, its positive impact on GDP dynamics disappeared in later periods. This is partly a natural process linked to economic upturn, when import starts to grow faster than export. These tendencies were exacerbated by stagnation in the eurozone, which absorbs as much as 50 percent of Polish export..
Recent months have also not been good for industry, as shown by the difference between the goods turnover balance and the services turnover balance. However, one should keep in mind that it results in part from Poland’s dependence on external energy supplies.
In spite of weaker recent figures, the foreign trade balance remains positive and the goods turnover balance deficit is caused mainly by income being transferred abroad.
Łukasz Kozłowski, expert of Employers of Poland