– According to preliminary estimates of the Ministry of Labour and Social Policy, registered unemployment rate at the end of 2014 was 11.5 per cent. This means that, compared with November, the percentage of people registered as jobseekers rose by 0.1 percentage point. – This is very good news, considering the fact that the unemployment rate is falling on an annual basis the fastest in more than six years – says Łukasz Kozlowski, expert of Employers of Poland.
It's a very small increase in unemployment, given the fact that in the autumn and winter we have a very negative impact of seasonal factors. Two years ago in the same period of the year the pace of growth in the proportion of people without a job was five times faster than it is today. So far the cyclical factor outweighs the seasonal one, so even in the cold months of the year we have not had a sharp increase in unemployment so far. Decrease of registered unemployment accelerated in the past month to 1.9 percentage points. It should be perceived as a very positive development as the last time the unemployment rate was declining at such a pace – on an annual basis – was in November 2008 – more than six years ago.
2014 was surprisingly good from the point of view of the Polish labour market. A few months ago, none of the economists anticipated such a rapid decline in unemployment. In the budget for 2014 the government predicted that unemployment would be 13.8 percent at the end of the year – 2.3 percentage points higher. Even during a slight slowdown in the economic growth companies constantly increased the level of employment. It seems that this was due to the long-term strategy in their business operations. Despite temporary difficulties entrepreneurs expect economic recovery in Poland and they want to benefit from it by increasing investment and employment. Macroeconomic indicators show that Polish economy is accelerating – which means that the risk of reverse trends is so far relatively small. However, in January there usually is the peak of seasonal unemployment growth. It can therefore be expected that registered unemployment rate will increase to approx. 12 percent. From March on the percentage of unemployed should, however, fall again.
Łukasz Kozłowski, expert of Employers of Poland