Today, the European Central Bank announced the start of a wide-ranging program of so-called „quantitative easing”. – The ECB, in order to stimulate eurozone economy, uses tools of the highest caliber. An increase in monetary demand resulting from such a move should weaken the rates of the common European currency, decrease the profitability of bonds and increase in stock exchange indexes. This decision could also contribute to the strengthening of Swiss franc – thinks Łukasz Kozłowski, expert of Employers of Poland.
Financial markets have anxiously awaited the ECB’s decision for some. The scope of the already announced European asset purchase cause stock exchange indexes to go up a little and euro weakened significantly in relation to other currencies. However, the impact of these developments is relatively restricted. It appears that today’s declaration of ECB chairman Mario Draghi was not a surprise for most investors, which means that it has largely already been turned to account in prices.
The ECB conference contributed to increasing variation on the currency market, but thus far we have not had to Deal with serious turbulences. The exchange rate from Swiss franc to Polish złoty maintains a fairly stable level of ca. 4.31-4.33 PLN. One could say that, as of now, the ECB has neither helped nor hurt Polish borrowers with credits in Swiss francs.
However, the consequences of today’s decision will also be delayed. The situation will change with the influx of 60 bln euro every month, starting this March. Most likely it will contribute to a gradual weakening of the common European currency. It is hard to predict what impact it could have on Swiss franc exchange rate in relation to złoty, but there is a serious risk that the ECB’s decision will strengthen the franc. On the other hand, it is quite likely that other factors will be decisive – further interest rate cuts or a deteriorating balance of payment in Switzerland could mean that the exchange rate to złoty will decrease.
Łukasz Kozłowski, expert of Employers of Poland