In January, the PMI index of Polish industry reached as much as 55.2 points and is now at the highest level in 11 months – significant above analysts’ expectations. – This is a great and completely unexpected result, which only seemed possible after a long and slow process of improvement. If January indications do not prove to be just a statistical anomaly and similar good showings are repeated in the coming months, the scenario of a significant increase in Poland’s GDP growth dynamics in 2015 will be all the more likely – comments Łukasz Kozłowski, expert of Employers of Poland.
The most recent PMI index is a very big, positive surprise. The market consensus was shaped at 53 points – the actual result was better by as much as 2.2 points. The new acquisitions dynamics recuperated unexpectedly quickly – it was negative as recently as the third quarter. Demand for Polish products is increasing both domestically and abroad. It is most likely a delayed result of a relatively dynamic growth in Polish households’ real income and the fact that Polish companies gathered themselves after the shock resulting from the closing of some Easter markets and started to effectively restructure their export portfolios. Weakening złoty and cheaper energetic raw materials also work in Polish industry’s favour.
Such a strong increase in PMI is a signal not to be ignored. Although a continuation of such good results in the coming months is required to draw definitive conclusions, it should be kept in mind that this index is a relatively faithful indication of GDP dynamics. Thus, one cannot rule out that we are now dealing with the first sign of a significant increase in Poland’s GDP growth dynamics in 2015.
Łukasz Kozłowski, expert of Employers of Poland