Most recent GUS figures show that the registered unemployment rate in February was 12 percent. – Although in an analogous period of last year we were already dealing with a drop in unemployment, this is still a very good result. All evidence suggests that – after a short winter break – the number of unemployed people will start rapidly increasing starting next month – comments Łukasz Kozłowski, expert of Employers of Poland.
Considering the fact, that in the last few years February was usually time of significant unemployment growth, most recent figures remain a positive indication. Although economic growth dynamics are still relatively moderate, it has quite a strong impact on job creation. This results mainly from the significant role of investment in GDP structure. It is increasingly clear that we have now entered a phase in the business cycle where employers do not only maintain their reserves, but also develop their production capacities in order to better take advantage of the increasing potential of the domestic market and competitiveness of Polish export.
Year-to year unemployment decrease dynamics stay slightly below 2 percentage points. Even if it gets a bit weaker in the coming months, one cannot rule out that in the third quarter the rate of people registered as looking for a job will drop to a one-digit value and unemployment according to BAEL will reach a record low of 7 percent. If that were to happen, companies would probably start dealing with increasing wage pressure (real wages are already growing the fastest in six years) and problems with finding appropriately qualified employees.
Łukasz Kozłowski, expert of Employers of Poland