In March, Polish industry’s PMI fell to 54.8 points – shows latest research ordered by HSBC. – Though figures are bit lower than expected, they are still very good. If PMI’s predictive value has been maintained, we may expect higher economic growth dynamics – comments Łukasz Kozłowski, expert of Employers of Poland.
Industry is slowly making up ground in relation to other branches, which did not experience a similarly deep downturn midway through last year.
Most recent data suggests further improvement on the labour market – the employment sub-index reached a record high. This is another proof that the fall of the registered unemployment rate to single figures in the third quarter of this year is a possibility.
Some signs that inflation pressure is easing are also apparent. The factor contributing to rising prices is the lower złoty to dollar exchange rate, which – although it increases the competitiveness of Polish export – makes import goods more expensive. The discrepancy between production costs and prices is widening. As a consequence of this, the financial results of the industry sector may be subject to increasing pressure.
In recent months, PMi has reflected the fluctuations of economic climate in Poland in a somewhat overdriven manner – the decrease GDP dynamics decreased in the second half of 2014 has proven to be much less pronounced than PMI results at that time suggested. This means that today’s showings also have to be approached cautiously. However, the cause for satisfaction is the fact that the index has maintained a high level throughout the entire first quarter – this gives us some hope that we will soon see an improvement in key macroeconomic indexes for that period.
Łukasz Kozłowski, expert of Employers of Poland