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Companies’ prognoses for the future the best in 13 months


April saw a further improvement of Poland’s economic condition. The assessment of the current situation is the best since midway through last year and companies’ prognoses are the best since March 2014 – these are the showings of the Entrepreneurs’ Optimism Index, elaborated based on a survey conducted among members of Employers of Poland.


In April 2015, the Index assumed the value of 105.8 points with regards to current business situation, compared to 104.6 pts in March. The prognoses for the next six months also improved – from 121.1 pts last month to 129.7 pts.


The Entrepreneurs’ Optimism Index  – figures for April 2015


The dynamics of the assessment of current business situation have improved constantly for the last five months and as a result, the index has reached its highest value since mid-2014. The percentage of companies who experienced and upturn increased, though the number of companies who report a downturn also increased. The value of the subindex is growing with ever-increasing dynamics – it changed by 0.8 pts from February to March and by 1.2 pts from March to April.


Responses with regards to the situation in the next six months are even more optimistic – over half of respondents expect an improved economic climate, with the subindex reaching the highest value in 13 months. This means that companies are now more likely to create jobs and start new investments.


April was a good month for road haulers, who overcame the consequences of the crisis in the East and the introduction of more restrictive regulations in some EU countries. However, IT and communication companies had a particularly good time this month. The situation in the finance sector is interesting, in that companies signaled a significant deterioration of their current business condition, while their prognoses for the future remain optimistic. We cannot exclude the possibility that this is a result of recent developments unfavourable for bank institutions – such as KNF guidelines on dividend payment and the ruling of the Constitutional Tribunal regarding bank writs of execution. April was not a good month for industry and the construction sector either.


Regardless of size, most companies expect the economic climate to improve in the next six months. However, compared to last month, medium-sized companies have reported the most significant improvement, while big companies’ views in this regard are neutral and small companies have actually experienced a downturn.