In April, the PMI index for the Polish industry sector fell to 54 points. – Though this result is lower than expected, the condition of Polish industry remains very good. However, the slowdown in employment growth dynamics can be a cause for concern – comments Łukasz Kozłowski, expert of Employers of Poland.
The coming months should show whether the current upturn in the industry sector – similarly to early 2014 – will end as abruptly as it started, or rather PMI will stabilize at a level significantly higher than 50 points.
The fact that the lower result is mainly the effect of a weaker employment growth dynamics. This may indicate that a period of extraordinarily rapid improvement on the labour market, which started over a year ago, is coming to an end. However, a registered unemployment rate below 10 percent in the third quarter of this year is still a realistic target.
Meanwhile, the foreign procurements growth rate is the fastest in over a year, which is clearly a positive development. It gives hope for a better contribution of net export to GDP growth in this and the coming quarters. This component has weakened significantly since early 2014, which is caused a.o. by the economic downturn in Western Europe. These countries are now showing signs of growing demand for imported goods, but the attractiveness of Polish export to these countries is negatively influenced by a weakening euro.
Łukasz Kozłowski, economic expert of Employers of Poland