The value of sold industrial production increased by 2.3 percent in comparison to April last year, while retail sales grew by 1.5 percent – announced GUS. – Recent figures are significantly weaker than expected. This was caused predominantly by short-term factors. The foundations still seem to work in favour of an improved economic climate in industry and growing consumption demand in the coming months – says Łukasz Kozłowski, expert of Employers of Poland.
Polish exporters currently have a good position in competition on foreign markets, despite the highly accommodating policy of the ECB leading to a weakening of euro in relations to złoty. Improvement on the labour market and increased real income in households show that the situation on the internal market should remain stable. Indexes such as the PMI also do not suggest an imminent long-term downturn in industrial production growth.
Retail sales figures also disappoint. It is worth pointing out that the figures currently presented by GUS are expressed in fixed prices, so it is impossible to ascertain whether the view of the situation is distorted by deflation. An earlier Easter may have had some impact as some shopping was done in March. The weak retail trade turnover suggests that in early 2015 investments remain the main motor of GDP growth. However, considering fundamental factors, such as the quickest real wage fund growth since 2008 and decreasing real interest rates, it seems that individual consumption dynamics should pick up the pace sooner or later.
Łukasz Kozłowski, economic expert of Employers of Poland