Poland’s GDP dynamics in the first quarter of 2015 was 3.6 percent – show newest GUS figures. Though the dynamics is similar to what we have been dealing with for the past several quarters, the structure of growth has changed completely. Luckily, a significant dip in investment contributions and decreased reserves were more than compensated for with a rapid improvement in net export.
Early 2015 brought fundamental changes to the GDP growth structure. In the first quarter of this year, the contribution of domestic demand and accumulation to aggregated product growth fell drastically. In such a situation, net export came to the rescue – its rapid improvement enabled the GDP dynamics to not only maintain its level, but even to increase.
Public consumption also decreased. It appears that the commencement of projects co-financed within the new financial perspective may cause the contribution of this factor to grow. The impact of smaller government acquisitions was largely compensated for by bigger individual consumption. Considering the quickly decreasing unemployment and relatively quick real wage growth, one can expect consumer demand to contribute more and more to an increased GDP growth.
For the first time in many months export dynamics exceeded import value growth dynamics. This undoubtedly helped maintain GDP growth at a level significantly above 3 percent year to year. However, one has to keep in mind that this is caused in equal measure by export growth and import decrease. At a time of economic upturn, maintaining that will not be easy, though a weaker złoty should have a positive impact on the competitiveness of Polish import. Further increase in our economies growth rate will, however, depend to a greater degree on consumption and investment rather than export.
Łukasz Kozłowski, economic expert of Employers of Poland