In May, the registered unemployment rate fell to 10.8 percent – indicate most recent assessments made by the Ministry of Labour and Social Policy. – The rate of people registered as looking for a job is decreasing, but at a lower year to year rate. This means that the prognosis of the Ministry of Labour, according to which the unemployment rate would decrease to single digits in the holiday season is unlikely to be true – comments Łukasz Kozłowski, expert of Employers of Poland.
The figures presented by the Ministry of Labour testify to the continuously improving situation on the Polish labour market. The unemployment index based on BAEL prepared for Eurostat is closing in on its lowest levels from 2008, the time of the economic boom. The dynamic drop in unemployment will undoubtedly stimulate individual consumption. Increased consumer demand should in turn have a positive impact on the economic situation and contribute to a quicker fading of disinflation processes. One can also expect that as the upturn on the labour market is maintained, an increasing pressure on wage growth will also appear.
The Minister of Labour and Social Policy has stated that in the holiday season, the registered unemployment rate will most likely fall to single digits. For that to happen it would have fall at a rate close to 1.8 percentage points year to year. Meanwhile, at the start of this year we are dealing with a lower year-to-year dynamics of unemployment decrease – it fell from 2 percentage points in January to 1.7 in March. For the aforementioned prognosis to come true, this trend would have to change quickly, which in not sure to happen or even particularly likely. The biggest chance for a single digit unemployment rate will be after the holiday season – in September and October, when the unemployment rate would only have to drop 1.4 percent year to year. However, if we returned to the season patterns which dominated the Polish labour market in recent years, such an improvement may be hard to achieve. Thus, it is quite likely that the registered unemployment rate in the third and fourth quarter will maintain a level of slightly above 10 percent.
Łukasz Kozłowski, economic expert of Employers of Poland