As shown by latest GUS figures, the registered unemployment rate in May fell to 10.8 percent. – The unemployment rate is the lowest in almost six years. The situation on the labour market should continue to improve in the coming months. It is also quite likely that the unemployment rate will fall below 10 percent in September or October – says Łukasz Kozłowski, expert of Employers of Poland.
The situation on the labour market is systematically improving, though the year to year rate of registered unemployment decrease is slightly lower. The registered unemployment rate last month was the lowest since August 2009. Although the GDP dynamics remains lower than the potential of Polish economy, the current upturn is particularly pro-employment. Entrepreneurs are relatively optimistic in their assessment of the development perspectives of the Polish market which prompts them to increase investment and, in turn, create new jobs.
High-ranking representatives of the Ministry of Labour and Social Policy assure that unemployment would fall below 10 percent in the holiday season. This appears excessively optimistic. For that prognosis to come true, the rate of unemployment decrease would to maintain the current level. However, in recent months we are dealing with a moderate slowdown of this rate which may continue in the coming months.
It should be kept in mind that the question of whether the scenario outlined by the Ministry comes true or not has mostly symbolic significance – its real impact on the situation on the labour market is limited.
Łukasz Kozłowski, economic experts of Employers of Poland