As shown by a recent estimation made by the Ministry of Labour and Social Policy, in June the registered unemployment rate fell to 10.4 percent. – The situation on the labour market has not been this in almost 7 years. We are approaching a moment when unemployment be so low so as to cause intensified wage pressure. On the other hand, it is hard not to notice that the climate on the labour market is no longer improving as rapidly as it did at the beginning of the year – comments Łukasz Kozłowski.
The situation on the job market is improving dynamically. The number of job offers is the highest since the records are kept and the registered unemployment rate is the lowest since January 2009. The fact that with an annual GDP growth rate of ca. 3.5 percent the number of people without a job is decreasing moderately rapidly is an optimistic signal – though it may also be cause for concern. This process may indicate that the development potential of Polish economy is slowly running out and the labour market, as well as other markets, may be returning to a state of stability.
The decrease in unemployment in the coming months will be less impressive, as the vast majority of seasonal works have already commenced. Thus, the unemployment rate will depend largely on the economic climate, the impact of which is gradually dwindling. While in January unemployment fell by 2 percentage points year to year, this dynamics decreased to 1.6 percentage points in June. Meanwhile, if the prognosis made by the Ministry of Labour and Social Policy stating that unemployment rate would drop to single digits in two months were to come true, the year to year unemployment decrease rate would improve to 1.8 percentage points.
Łukasz Kozłowski, economic expert of Employers of Poland