As shown by most recent GUS figures, the registered unemployment rate in June fell to 10.3 percent. – This is a better showing than suggested by initial prognoses of the Ministry of Labour. This confirms the extraordinary strength of the revival on the labour market which we are now experiencing, although the GDP dynamics did not yet exceed 4 percent year to year – comments Łukasz Kozłowski.
Despite the still only moderately satisfying economic growth in Poland, the situation on the labour market continues to improve. Considering the GDP dynamics, the registered unemployment rate is falling extraordinarily quickly. Results of the research on economic activity indicate that the rate of people really without a job is only 1 percentage point higher than in the best moment in 2008.
A significant contribution of expenditures on fixed assets to the structure of GDP growth, resulting from entrepreneurs’ increased optimism, is also a factor conducive to job creation. They are more and more inclined to use the reserves for hard times on starting investment projects. The role of the pro-export reorientation of Polish economy is also not to be overlooked.
However, it’s hard to avoid the impression that the unemployment decrease dynamics has dwindled since the start of the new year. This could be seen as signal for a slowdown in the upturn on the Polish market in the coming quarters. On the other hand, it should also be kept in mind that as unemployment falls more and more among those who remain without a job find themselves in such a situation due to long-term unemployment and a sizeable skills gap.
A further drop in registered unemployment is to be expected starting in September or October – to level slightly below 10 percent. At the end of the year, it could increase a bit, to ca. 10.2 percent due to the negative impact of seasonal factors.
Łukasz Kozłowski, economic expert of Employers of Poland