PMI for Polish manufacturing sector rose in July to 54.5 points. – Industry, which until recently was one of the weakest points of the Polish economy, is growing into a leader of the recovery. Both internal and external conditions of the sector are improving significantly. This allows us to make more optimistic forecasts about economic growth and unemployment for the next quarters – says Łukasz Kozlowski, an expert of Employers of Poland.
Contrary to quite pessimistic forecasts of most analysts, the situation in the industrial sector is improving at an accelerating pace. This is due to a series of advantageous circumstances. The competitiveness of Polish exports is growing, which results, among others from depreciation of the Polish zloty against many foreign currencies. The fact that there has been a noticeable improvement in economic conditions of our main trading partners is of some importance as well . At the same time due to a relatively rapid growth in employment and real wages internal consumer demand is gradually increasing. This is also reflected in the increase in value of the contracts awarded to manufacturing companies. Another driving force of recovery is the need to rebuild inventories, which have so far remained relatively low.
In contrast to the situation of the previous year, PMI has stabilized at a high level for a longer period. This is another signal that in the second half of 2015 GDP growth will reach around 4 percent. Given the optimistic employment sub-index readings, you can also expect to see further improvement in the labour market. Economic recovery also causes a gradual fading of the disinflationary process. However, a sharp rise in the consumer price index is unlikely because it will be slowed down by falling prices of fuel.
Łukasz Kozlowski, an economic expert of the Employers of Poland