As shown by initial GUS estimations, GDP in the second quarter increased by 3.3 percent year to year. – Most recent figures are certainly an unpleasant surprise. We still do not know what the structure of GDP growth is, which would provide an opportunity to assess the causes of such a poor showing. However, it appears that it was effected by weaker consumption and investment dynamics, which has been visible since the beginning of the year, but this time it appears to have been successfully mitigated by net export – comments Łukasz Kozłowski.
Due to the preliminary nature of the figures we do not know the structure of GDP growth. However, the figures from the first quarter can provide some clues. That time saw the contribution of investments to GDP growth, coupled with a negative effect with regards to current asset growth and a weaker public consumption. The situation was then saved by spectacular growth in net export. It seems that now the contribution of the surplus of export of over import was closer to its normal values, which meant that even with an improvement in investments, stock and consumption was not enough to maintain the GDP growth rate. Base effects can also have some impact, as the second quarter was the best in 2014 with regards to economic growth.
A weakened economic growth dynamics should be temporary. In the coming periods it will likely reach a level over 3.5 percent year to year. A continued increase of the real wage fund is conducive to an increase in inclinations for consumption, while recent stock reductions in companies will have to come to an end. Yet another decrease in raw material and energy prices should have a positive impact on supply.
Łukasz Kozłowski, economic expert of Employers of Poland