As the most recent GUS figures show, in July the average wage grew by 3.3. percent compared to the same month the year before, and average employment improved by 0.9 percent year to year. – Nominal wage dynamics maintains a level similar to the preceding quarters. However, given the diminishing deflation, the real wage growth rate slows down. Thus a decreased unemployment still has not generated wage pressure, though we are surely approaching a point when it appears – says Łukasz Kozłowski, expert of Employers of Poland.
Despite a decreased registered unemployment rate reaching the lowest level in 6 years, wage growth dynamics remain moderate. This indicates that employers still do not experience serious problems with filling vacancies. The partial cause is a restricted fictional unemployment, as shown by the difference between the decrease of the registered unemployment rate and the unemployment rate according to BAEL. An improved economic climate also plays a significant role.
Although the annual average wage growth rate improved somewhat compared to last month, the real wage dynamics have recently indicated a tendency to decrease. This is effected by a gradual decrease in consumer price deflation. As a consequence, perspectives for increased individual consumption, on which GDP growth largely depends, are not particularly optimistic. On the other hand, households still have not decided to assign to consumption a significant portion of the surplus which resulted from a relatively quick growth in the real wage fund in recent quarters. Short-term consumer demand may grow faster, despite the slowdown in real wage growth dynamics.
Just like last month, year to year employment dynamics maintains the highest level since November 2014. This may suggest a lower unemployment decrease rate, though one has to appreciate the fact that employment in companies with more than 9 employees is at an all-time high – over 5.583 mln people.
Łukasz Kozłowski, economic expert of Employers of Poland