Interruptions in electricity supplies have contributed to a significant drop in the assessment of the economic climate in big industrial companies. Moreover, the negative tendencies in terms of prognoses for the next six months which appeared last month have intensified – such are the indications of the Entrepreneurs’ Optimism Index, which is elaborated based on surveys conducted among members of Employers of Poland.
In August 2015, the Index assumed a value of 108.9 points with regards to the assessment of the current economic situation, compared to 111.6 in July. The prognoses for the next six month has also decreased – from 133.8 points to 126.3 points.
After an increasingly dynamic improvement in the condition of Polish companies coupled with a worsening of the prognoses for the next half a year, this month we are dealing with a decrease of both main indices. The last time this has happened was in October 2014. The decrease recorded in August was the biggest since last November with regards to the current situation and in 12 months with regards to prognoses. In spite of these tendencies, the components of the Index maintain a relatively high level.
The lower assessment of Polish economy results from a.o. interruptions in energy supplies, which hurt mostly the biggest recipients. As a consequence, industry was the least optimistic sector among respondents. In August, contrary to prior dominant tendencies, small companies were the most optimistic group in terms of the assessment of their condition.
It cannot be ruled out that some of them – as co-operators of biggest entities – will feel the negative impact of the problems of the energy sector with a delay. It should be noted that the decrease in the assessment of future prospects was much more pronounced, which should not be tied to energy problems, as they are temporary and incidental. The weakening prospect of an increased demand for goods and services also has an impact. Apart from that, the worsening condition of Chinese economy is reflected in the situation of German entrepreneurs which, in turn, has a significant influence on Polish economy.
The transport sector which exhibited signs of an upturn has experienced a drop in activity. However, its prognoses for the future remain moderately optimistic. The construction sector is also quite optimistic, while moods in the trade sector remain rather neutral.