Gross domestic product in the second quarter increased by 3.3. percent year to year – show the latest GUS figures. – The consumption and investment dynamics is not particularly impressive, but thankfully the Polish economy is compensating for it with a good foreign trade balance and improved impact of reserves. It is also worth stressing that figures adjusted for seasonal factors show an increased year to year economic growth rate compared to previous quarters – comments Łukasz Kozłowski, expert of Employers of Poland.
The newest figures confirm initial GDP assessments from two weeks ago. However, now we know the contribution of each factor to its growth.
The contribution of expenses on fixed assets, as well as private and public consumption, has decreased. Companies are less willing to start investment projects, which may soon have a negative impact on job creation and, in turn, the situation on the labour market. One cannot rule out that in the coming months the dynamics of unemployment decrease will slow down. The situation is not helped by the fact that households are reluctant to increase consumption spending, although their income grows at the fastest rate in a few years.
The factor stabilizing GDP dynamics is net export. Polish industry is still in good condition, systematically strengthening its competitive position in the world. At the same time, the unwillingness to consume means that the value of imported goods and services is growing slowly. A highly negative contribution of net export to aggregated product growth is a characteristic feature of Polish economy in times of upturn. However, in recent times this has not been the case – early this year it has been clearly positive, and neutral in the II quarter. Given the far-reaching restriction of the negative contribution of reserves was enough for the GDP growth rate to be stabilized.
One should also keep in mind the seasonal factors and the impact of the relatively high basis from the II quarter of last year. Data adjusted for seasonal variance points to increased economic growth rate which positively influences the general picture.
Łukasz Kozłowski, economic expert of Employers of Poland