According to most recent figures, in August the PMI for Polish industry fell to 51.1 points compared to 54.5 in July. – August figures on the situation in Polish industry are shockingly poor. Most analysts’ prognoses have pointed only to a moderate downturn – meanwhile, the sector has found itself almost on the brink of stagnation. Such a rapid worsening of the economic climate can be attributed to extraordinary restrictions in energy supplies for industry which occurred in August. Because of the current condition of Chinese economy – among other factors – one cannot be sure that in the coming months the climate in industry will be as good as it had been midway through this year – comments Łukasz Kozłowski, expert of Employers of Poland.
The activity of Polish economy continues to grow, although the rate is significantly lower than in recent months. Sub-indexes of the PMI indicate that production, export and new orders dynamics fell rapidly. Therefore, a period of stabilized economic activity in industry has come to an abrupt end.
Given that the August showing was shaped by an extraordinary event which should not occur again in the near future, one can expect Polish economy to recapture at least some of its good form in the coming months. On the other hand, other threats which may put an end to the upturn in industry also have to be taken into consideration. Internal demand, despite a sizeable growth of the financial potential of Polish households in recent times, remains limited. The increasingly likely serious downturn in China may have a negative impact on industry in Germany the supplies for which are often provided by Polish companies. Dynamically decreasing raw material prices are a positive impulse for supply, though it may be weaker than negative demand shocks.
Some consolation is provided by the fact that the worsening of the condition of the Polish industry did not have a negative impact on new job creation.
Łukasz Kozłowski, economic expert of Employers of Poland