Today we know the long-awaited data on industrial production in August. According to information provided by the Central Statistical Office, the value of Polish industrial production sold decreased in the past month in real terms by 7.1 percent compared to July but it was 5.3 percent higher than in the corresponding period of the previous year. – Latest data show that the reductions in electricity supply, which Polish companies experienced have had a significant impact on the volume of production, but it should not be overestimated. One weaker month is not enough to lead to a downturn in the industry, especially bearing in mind that August tends to be a weaker month for the sector – says Łukasz Kozłowski, an expert of Employers of Poland.
The overall picture of the situation was improved because of a favourable impact of seasonal factors on the final result in terms of year-on-year. Seasonally adjusted data show that industrial production increased in August by 3.6 percent year-on-year and declined only 1.3 percent month-to-month. Although the difference in the number of working days in relation to August of the previous year was favourable, the effect was partially offset by the possibility of receiving a day off for the holiday on Saturday, 15th August.
It is clearly noticeable that the companies involved in industrial processing fared the least in the past month. On the other hand, the value of production in the mining industry increased moderately.
August energy crisis should not affect the overall situation in the industry although it may have adverse long-term effect on the perception of risk in production activities in Poland. In this context, September PMI readings will be interesting as the index recorded one of the highest declines in history last month.
Łukasz Kozłowski, an economic expert of the Employers of Poland